Sunday, April 03, 2005

China – Is It The Looming Threat?

In getting out my crystal ball to predict the future for China a dozen years down the road, the first thing that came to my mind was an article I had read awhile ago about the future of China’s population. Dr. Demarche had emailed me to write up my thoughts on China’s future in 10 to 15 years from a military and cultural perspective. Other than my initial reaction of huh, what do I know about China? I did remember the population aricle. Other events which popped into my mind was the US Plane intentionally hit by the Chinese plane in early 2001 which was bizarre and all too telling of a China trying to flex it's muscles for what? What was the purpose of that whole event? To try to take a new U.S. President down a peg? Or was it because of China's dealings with the Clinton Administration which was appease, appease and give away U.S. technology and nuclear secrets. Anyway, I digress from my initial point which is the population item.

So, I went about trying to find the article I had read because it seemed to fit into our (the U.S.) ability to ignore real facts staring us in the face until it was too late. Guess it’s human nature. Found the article and it was from The American thinker, Forty Million Frustrated Bachelors written by Thomas Lifson. In essence, what Lifson tells us is due to China’s population controls (i.e. one child per family through abortion and birth control), what has been happening is: when a Chinese couple finds out they are having a baby, they first find out the sex of the child. If it’s a girl, they abort the baby. If it’s a boy, they have their one male child. See where this is going? By the year 2020 there will be 30 to 40 million young adult males unable to find women to marry in China.

This may be a strange minutia to focus on but I find it to be a strange yet compelling piece of the puzzle in China’s ever looming threat to the United States. What happens to all of these young males in conjunction with China’s thirst for power and domination in the world. Already we see China choking Hong Kong and muscling Tawain and the China Sea.

As Lipson says:
Anyone who has ever dealt with numbers of horny young adult males understands the gravity of this problem. A permanently frustrated and angry mass of young men is a potential source of revolutionary street mobs, or, alternatively, of testosterone-powered soldiers. China’s leadership, ever anxious to cling to power, is all but certain to choose the latter option.


I do think that China could fall apart on the commercial front though. While 'free' societies continue to develop their markets through new innovations in manufacturing (i.e. robotics) to cut costs and increase efficiencies China is still dependent on human body counts to achieve production which eventually will require increases in costs due to pay demands etc. Open information will eventually bring about the demand for the increases.

Of course China is trying to stifle information access to it's population from the internet but I don't think they will succeed. We do have that austere and venerable institution called the United Nations trying it's darnest to wrestle control of the internet out of the hands of the U.S. of which would be a disaster to all and I don't think that will ever happen. Well, maybe when hell freezes over but then with "Global Warming", I can't see that happening either. ~grin~

I did read about China strongly advocating for all of the industrialized nations to be signing the Kyoto Treaty. What a hoot! Of course we know that China isn't subject to the Kyoto Treaty. China, the 2nd largest consumer of oil in the world! China does now have it's tenacles in Venezuala. I know the talking points around this but don't have the knowledge to discuss the bad news around this for the United States. I just understand it can't be good news.

How is China going to look in a dozen years? I don't know, but I do know that if the United States and other 'free' countries don't wake up to the reality of the "Beast" we will all be sorry.


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